Risk & Resilience Research Group

Disasters, ranging from major natural and industrial accidents to pandemics and wars, have a devastating impact on the lives and well-being of thousands of people if society is unprepared for emergencies and the root causes of vulnerability are ignored. 

Our research group has: 

ENLIGHT

Risk and Resilience Research Group of the University of Tartu has won the ENLIGHT Impact Award in digital revolution for developing an analysis tool that helps crisis management agencies to better identify threats to people’s lives in various disasters


We conduct research and development in three areas: 

1. Social Vulnerability to Disasters: Analysis and Mitigation  

We spearhead a novel dynamic approach to social vulnerability to disasters. By systematically explaining the context-specific impacts of both social support networks and official support structures in preventing and resolving emergencies, we gain a significantly more accurate and detailed picture of how vulnerability emerges and evolves. The framework developed by the group enables mapping potentially affected groups and their needs during emergencies, based on specific hazard scenarios. This helps to identify comparable patterns in crisis management that determine why some social and institutional environments have been more successful in reducing vulnerabilities.

2. Disaster Risk Management: Engagement, Foresight, and Innovation  

To foresee and prepare for the dangers emerging in complex crises, new analytical techniques and management principles are needed that go beyond the analysis of past experiences and the narrow circle of authorities. We analyse the approaches and practices in various countries to explain how to enhance crisis preparedness and coping by engaging different stakeholders from social protection institutions to spontaneous volunteers. In co-creation with stakeholders, we forecast future risks and vulnerabilities and design interventions for both urban areas and rural communities. We use methods from futures studies and data science to create future crisis scenarios and predict societal vulnerability in Europe. 

3. Risk and Crisis Communication 

We contribute to a deeper and more detailed understanding of the vulnerabilities arising from various barriers to risk and crisis communication. Our communication-related vulnerability framework helps to explain how false and harmful information drives vulnerability to disasters. Our research focuses on individual, socio-structural, and context-specific factors that have hindered access to and understanding of risk and crisis information, or adequate response to warnings and behavioural guidelines in various emergencies. We also investigate how crisis management agencies all across the world have improved their policies and practices to overcome these barriers to communication. 

 

Doctoral students:

  • Kristi Nero CV  
  • Sten Torpan CV  
  • Usha Dahal CV  
  • Ida Joao-Hussar CV  
  • Ingeliis Siimsen CV  
  • Ahmed Atia Rezk CV

Orru, K., Hansson, S., Gabel, F., Tammpuu, P., Krüger, M., Savadori, L., Meyer, S. F., Torpan, S., Jukarainen, P., Schieffelers, A., Lovasz, G., & Rhinard, M. (2022). Approaches to ‘vulnerability’ in eight European disaster management systems. Disasters, 46(3), 742–767. https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12481 

While social vulnerability in the face of disasters has received increasing academic attention, relatively little is known about the extent to which that knowledge is reflected in practice by institutions involved in disaster management. This study charts the practitioners’ approaches to disaster vulnerability in eight European countries: Belgium; Estonia; Finland; Germany; Hungary; Italy; Norway; and Sweden. It draws on a comparative document analysis and 95 interviews with disaster managers and reveals significant differences across countries in terms of the ontology of vulnerability, its sources, reduction strategies, and the allocation of related duties. To advance the debate and provide conceptual clarity, we put forward a heuristic model to facilitate different understandings of vulnerability along the dimensions of human agency and technological structures as well as social support through private relations and state actors. This could guide risk analysis of and planning for major hazards and could be adapted further to particular types of disasters. 

Orru, K., Klaos, M., Nero, K., Gabel, F., Hansson, S., Nævestad, T.‐O. (2023). Imagining and assessing future risks: A dynamic scenario‐based social vulnerability analysis framework for disaster planning and response. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 31 (4), 995−1008. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12436  

While social vulnerability assessments should play a crucial part in disaster management, there is a lack of assessment tools that retain sensitivity to the situation-specific dynamics of vulnerabilities emerging in particular hazard scenarios. We developed a novel scenario-based vulnerability assessment framework together with practitioners in crisis management and assessed the suitability of its components in three past crises and their scenario-based derivations: a large-scale power outage, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a cyber-attack. Rather than deterministically concluding about vulnerability based on prefixed factors, the framework guides relevant stakeholders to systematically think through categories of vulnerability pertinent to a scenario. We used a table-top exercise, interviews, and focus groups to demonstrate how the framework broadens the crisis managers’ understanding of the scope of factors that may cause vulnerability, the related sources of information and enables to identify individuals burdened by certain vulnerability mixes. The new framework could be applied to different types of crises to enhance preparedness, demand-driven relief and rescue during critical events. 

Orru, K., & Nævestad, T.-O. (2023). “What makes individuals fall through the safety nets during disasters?” Special issue in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 96, 103874. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103874 

Barely recovered from the effects of the pandemic and still in the grip of war aggression, Europe and the world are shaken by heat waves, forest fires and floods. The ongoing poly-crisis is accompanied by instability in the natural environment, the economy and geopolitics, highlighting more than ever the structural inequalities and disadvantages that hinder the adaptation of societies to exceptional circumstances. To understand why thousands of individuals still suffer and so many have perished in these crises, the special issue brings together knowledge gathered from recent pan-European research projects on how social vulnerability is defined and whether and how vulnerability can be prevented or mitigated.  

One of the key questions in this special issue is who is vulnerable in a crisis. It discusses whether vulnerability is static and depends on a person’s characteristics (e.g. age) or socioeconomic coping (e.g. poverty) or whether it is dynamic and anyone can become vulnerable. Among other topics, the journal focuses on people living in extreme poverty and explains that economic hardship is often not the main determinant of coping with crises. In addition to an individual’s characteristics and abilities, reasons for poor coping should be sought, for example, in the limited availability of their personal or formal support network. Crisis-time measures themselves may also create or aggravate vulnerabilities. 

The special issue examines the mechanisms of crisis vulnerability in European crisis management systems through examples of a variety of crises (e.g. COVID-19 pandemic, floods, earthquakes, residential fire). The articles draw on the results of European Commission Horizon 2020 research projects BuildERS (Building European Communities’ Resilience and Social Capital), LINKS (Strengthening links between technologies and society for European disaster resilience) and HERoS (Health Emergency Response in Interconnected Systems). 

Schobert, M., Krüger, M., Gabel, F., Orru, K., Nævestad, T.-O., Olson, A., & Schieffelers, A. (2023). How do we know vulnerability when we see it? An approach to integrating ethical reflections into empirical disaster research. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97, 104049. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104049 

While ethics assessments have become a standard in many research areas as well as in disaster studies, the tools used to reflect on normative issues remain in many cases underspecified. In this article, we seek to provide an example of how to integrate ethics into an inter- and transdisciplinary research consortium. Disaster research regularly engages with sensitive issues. More often than not, it deals with vulnerability, marginalisation and (lacking) societal coping capacities. Those who provide us with information are in many cases those who suffered from the events we analyse. This situation creates the moral obligation for disaster researchers to reflect their work. While normative questions certainly differ between research projects, we hold that some principles are highly transferable – particularly within the field of disaster research. The article proceeds in three steps: First, and after briefly arguing for the importance of ethics in disaster research, we present the ethics framework developed in the project. Second, we sketch out how we transferred this framework into the practical research setting. Third, we reflect particular ethical challenges we witnessed in the research process. Rather than providing a one-size-fits-all approach, we hope to fuel the debate about the reflection of normative issues in disaster research. 

Orru, K.,  Nævestad, T.-O., Siimsen, I., de Los Rios Pérez, D. A., Egner, L. E. (2023). Less is more? Why do we find less severe mental and material impact of COVID-19 among the most marginalised and homeless in countries with lower welfare spending? International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104034 

The study examines how various policy approaches in countries may have influenced the material and mental well-being outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic among marginalised groups and people experiencing homelessness in Europe. In a structured country comparison case study approach, we combine country-based indicators, e.g., the level of infection, unemployment, and restrictions, with individual data from a cross-sectional survey with 226 participants from 6 European countries. Contrary to expectations, our results suggest that vulnerable people living in countries with low welfare expenditure report lower negative mental and material impact of the COVID-19 pandemic than people living in countries with high welfare expenditure countries. This unexpected result could be explained by higher expectations of the level of support they should have received during extraordinary times such as the pandemic among respondents in the studied high welfare expenditure countries. Due to our cross-sectional design across only six countries, we cannot generalise the trend to Europe and only speculate on the causal mechanisms behind the observed association. We also discuss factors like the accessibility of care organisations’ support and pre-existing welfare policies. We suggest possible additional factors that may shed light on our results, noting that these issues need to be examined further in future studies with a more extensive study sample. 

Siimsen, I., Orru, K., Naevestad, T.-O., Nero, K. Olson, A., Kaal, E. & Frislid Meyer, S. (2023). Socio-economic outcomes of COVID-19 on the marginalised: Who have taken the hardest hit? International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103723 

This article aims to examine the socioeconomic outcomes of COVID-19 for socially marginalised people who are clients of social care organisations (e.g. people experiencing homelessness), and the factors influencing these outcomes. We tested the role of individual and socio-structural variables in determining socioeconomic outcomes based on a cross-sectional survey with 273 participants from eight European countries and 32 interviews and five workshops with managers and staff of social care organisations in ten European countries.

39% of the respondents agreed that the pandemic has had a negative effect on their income and access to shelter and food. The most common negative socio-economic outcome of the pandemic was loss of work (65% of respondents). According to multivariate regression analysis, variables such as being of a young age, being an immigrant/asylum seeker or residing in the country without documentation, living in your own home, and having (in)formal paid work as the main source of income are related to negative socio-economic outcomes following the COVID-19 pandemic. Factors such as individual psychological resilience and receiving social benefits as the main source of income tend to “protect” respondents from negative impacts. Qualitative results indicate that care organisations have been an important source of economic and psycho-social support, particularly significant in times of a huge surge in demand for services during the long-term crises of pandemic. 

Nero, K., Orru, K., Nævestad, T.-O., Olson, A., Schobert, M., Windsheimer, P., Keränen, J., Jukarainen, P., Kajganovic, J. (2023). Care organisations role as intermediaries between the authorities and the marginalised in crisis management. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103516 

Social service providers work to alleviate social disadvantages, which may particularly loom during crises. These organisations have a close understanding of the needs of their clients. However, this knowledge is rarely taken into account in tailoring crisis measures, which may lead to increased vulnerability and create additional suffering. In this paper, we take a novel look at the role of care organisations as intermediaries between their clients and the authorities in representing the needs and capabilities of vulnerable people and explore the factors hindering or facilitating this representation. We focused on care organisations in Europe and collected data from 32 interviews, followed by 5 workshops and an international colloquium with 6 language-based discussion groups with participants from organisations offering care services to socially marginalised individuals.

The results demonstrate the role these organisations had in advocating their clients’ needs to the authorities to adapt the crisis measures accordingly (“bottom-up approach”), and communicating official information about the risks and government rules to their clients (“top-down approach”). We found effective mediation to stem from long-term, trusting client relationship to be able to reflect on clients’ needs, while the lack of collaboration protocol and tradition can be seen as the main barrier to inclusive crisis management. Networking with social care services to bring their expertise into crisis management systems is essential to promote the resilience of the diverse society. 

Olson, A., Naevestad, T.-O., Orru, K., Nero, K., Schieffelers, A., Meyer, S. F. (2023). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socially marginalised women: Material and mental health outcomes. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 93, 103739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103739 

There is little knowledge about how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted people who are socially marginalised, including individuals who face barriers when attempting to access services such as social safety nets, the labour market, or housing. There is even less understanding about women living under these circumstances. The aims of this study are therefore to examine the material and mental impacts of COVID-19 among socially marginalised women (compared with socially marginalised men) as well as influencing factors. The study is based on survey data (N = 304) involving people who are clients of social care organisations in thirteen European countries. The sample includes clients: a) living in their homes, b) in facilities, and c) on the street and in temporary accommodations.

Results indicate that although material impacts were not significantly different for female and male respondents, socially marginalised women have experienced more severe mental impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic than socially marginalised men. Female respondents have been significantly more worried about COVID-19 infection than men, and they report significantly more PTSD-symptoms related to the pandemic. Quantitative results indicate that these differences are related to the fact that the female respondents worry more about health risks (e.g. falling ill). Female respondents also seem to be harder hit mentally by the material impacts of COVID-19. Among the free text survey answers regarding the biggest problem for the respondents after the outbreak of the pandemic, the most prevalent reply (among both men and women) was related to material impacts of the pandemic (39% of the respondents), particularly the loss of work (65%). While women reported deterioration of social relations more often, men mentioned lacking access to services more frequently. 

Schobert, M., Orru, K., Gabel, F., Nero, K., Windsheimer, P., Klaos, M., Naevestad, T.-O. (2023). The three A’s of social capital in crises: Challenges with the availability, accessibility and activatability of social support. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 92, 103704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103704 

Social capital has become a major factor for analysing vulnerabilities and resilience in the context of disaster studies in recent years. Usually, it is studied along its three forms of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital, and it is often framed as a static characteristic that a person either has at his or her disposal or not. Based on the results of case studies  conducted in Germany and Estonia focusing on four different crises (floods in Germany; long-term disruption of electricity due to a major storm in Estonia; a cyber-attack in Estonia; as well as the COVID-19 pandemic in both countries) we claim that this description and analysis of social capital does not allow for a comprehensive understanding of all the challenges disaster management has to deal with to decrease vulnerabilities and increase resilience. Using qualitative content analysis, we present a heuristic framework which not only asks whether bonding, bridging, and linking social capital is available to individuals, but also whether social capital is accessible and activatable when responding to or recovering from a disaster. In doing so, the paper helps to improve the overall usability of official or unofficial social support to cope with crises. 

Nero, K., Orru, K., Naevestad, T.-O., Olson, A., Airola, M., Savadori, L., Kazemekaityte, A., Lovasz, G., Kajganovic, J. (2023). Mechanisms behind COVID-19 scepticism among socially marginalised individuals in Europe. Journal of Risk Research, 26(6), 675−696. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2023.2208119 

Homeless and materially disadvantaged people are considered particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. So far, there is no systematic knowledge about how the homeless and materially disadvantaged people perceive the risks of COVID-19 and what factors influence the development of sceptical views and underestimation of dangers posed by the virus. The aim of our study is therefore to: (1) Explore COVID-19 risk perception of socially marginalised individuals, focusing on their assessment of the probability of getting infected by the virus and the perceived harmful consequences of the disease; and (2) examine the factors influencing COVID-19 risk beliefs of these individuals. We use cross-sectional survey data with 273 participants from eight countries and data from 32 interviews and five workshops with managers and staff of social care organisations in ten European countries.

Our results indicate that among survey participants, 49% can be labelled COVID-19 sceptics with regard to probability of getting infected, and 38% with regard to harmful consequences of the disease. We find that COVID-19 scepticism is related to low levels of all types of social capital, low trust in information from authorities and being a minority. However, the most important predictor is the respondents’ general lack of concern about health risks. Additionally, the qualitative data indicates the multifaceted nature of COVID-19 scepticism, as it may relate to the origins of COVID-19, the probability of infection, its consequences and protective measures, among others. Improved understanding about factors influencing COVID-19 scepticism in these groups contributes to a better understanding of the information disorder during crises, and the ways in which this could be managed through policies against marginalisation, including in disaster risk reduction. 

Nævestad, T.-O., Orru, K., Nero, K., Schieffelers, A., Olson, A., Ludvigsen, J., Airola, M., Savadori, L., Krüger, M., Gabel, F., Hesjevoll, I. (2022). Self-imposed social isolation among clients of social care organisations in the COVID-19 pandemic. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103360 

Although self-imposed social isolation is an important way of reducing the risk of COVID-19 infection, previous research indicates that this behaviour varies substantially between different groups and individuals. Socially marginalized people are generally less involved in protective health behaviours, but there are few studies of their COVID-19 protective behaviours. The aims of the paper are therefore to: 1) compare self-imposed social isolation to avoid COVID-19 among socially marginalized groups, and to 2) examine factors influencing this, focusing especially on the role of social capital, risk awareness and sources of information about COVID-19. The study is based on survey data (N = 173) from people who are clients of social care organisations in Estonia, Norway, Hungary and Portugal. The sample involves clients living: a) in their homes, b) in facilities, and c) on the street or under temporary arrangements.

Results indicate that the level of social isolation among the marginalized groups is comparable to that of the general population in previous studies. As hypothesized, we find that respondents living on the street or under temporary arrangements engage in less self-imposed social isolation than e.g. the respondents living in their homes. We also find lower levels of risk awareness, social capital and trust in authorities’ information about COVID-19 among people living on the street or under temporary arrangements. Only linking social capital and trust in authorities’ information was significantly related to respondents’ social isolation, and not worry for COVID-19 infection. Thus, it seems that respondents largely self-isolated because of “duty” and not worry for infection. 

Orru, K., Nero, K., Nævestad, T.-O., Schieffelers, A., Olson, A., Airola, M., Kazemekaityte, A., Lovasz, G., Scurci, G., Ludvigsen, J., de los Rios Pérez, D. A. (2021). Resilience in care organisations: challenges in maintaining support for vulnerable people in Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic. Disasters, 45, 48−75. https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12526 

The Covid-19 pandemic has challenged the resilience of care organisations (and those dependent on them), especially when services are stopped or restricted. This study focuses on the experiences of care organisations that offer services to individuals in highly precarious situations in 10 European countries. It is based on 32 qualitative interviews and three workshops with managers and staff. The four key types of organisations reviewed largely had the same adaptation patterns in all countries. The most drastic changes were experienced by day centres, which had to suspend or digitise services, whereas night shelters and soup kitchens had to reorganise broadly their work; residential facilities were minimally affected. Given the drastic surge in demand for services, reliance on an overburdened (volunteer) workforce, and a lack of crisis plans, the care organisations with long-term trust networks with clients and intra-organisational cooperation adapted easier. The outcomes were worse for new clients, migrants, psychologically vulnerable people, and those with limited communicative abilities. 


Nahkur, O., Orru, K., Hansson, S., Jukarainen, P., Myllylä, M., Krüger, M., Max, M., Savadori, L., Nævestad, T.O., Meyer, S.F., Schieffelers, A., Olson, A., Lovasz, G., & Rhinard, M. (2022). The engagement of informal volunteers in disaster management in Europe. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 83, 103413. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103413  

Informal volunteering is increasingly important in disaster management, but authorities remain cautious about collaborating with informal volunteers. Relatively little is known about the extent to which informal volunteers are integrated into European disaster management systems. We try to remedy this gap by examining Germany, Italy, Belgium, Hungary, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Estonia, focusing on (1) the policies and institutional arrangements for integrating informal volunteers, (2) the methods and tools used for their engagement, and (3) the presumed benefits and challenges of involving volunteers in disaster management.

95 expert interviews combined with desk research and four online table-top exercises in 2019–2020 involving analysis of 11 disaster cases show that disaster management systems in these countries are taking modest steps toward opening traditional command-and-control structures to informal volunteers. In Sweden and Norway, where volunteering is more common, the engagement of informal volunteers is somewhat regulated, providing an opportunity to formally insure them. In Belgium and Italy, the engagement of informal volunteers is not encouraged, but formal volunteering is encouraged. In Germany, Hungary, Finland, and Estonia, it is done on an ad hoc basis. In most of the countries studied, campaigns to raise volunteers’ awareness of support possibilities are backed up by practical training that focuses primarily on first aid. In all countries, except Germany, social media has been used by disaster management authorities to inform, guide, or register informal volunteers on an ad hoc basis. The studied cases indicate that disaster response is more efficient when procedures for informal volunteer engagement exist. 

Dahal, U., Orru, K., Orru, H., & Dijst, M. (2024). Green dreams, local realities: Complexities of the European Union’s energy transition to ensure local health and well-being in a fossil fuel-based industrial region. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 106, 107520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107520 

European Union’s Green Deal is a legal obligation to EU countries to shift towards environment-friendly energy systems from fossil-fuel-based systems. This transition will bring significant global health benefits by combating climate change, but it is crucial to understand the so far understudied impacts on local communities’ lives and, thus, on their health and well-being. The study proposes a novel conceptual framework based on socio-technical systems theory and the production of space theory to identify the interacting points between energy systems and health and well-being systems in the energy transition context. This framework is tested in Estonia’s transitioning fossil fuel oil-shale-based energy system based on four focus group discussions, ten expert interviews, and document analysis. We innovatively pinpoint pathways, including feedback loops, through a causal loop diagram (CLD) impacting inhabitants’ health and well-being from the interplay between energy and health and well-being systems.

The analysis indicates that protecting and promoting health and well-being has been a challenge not only due to disruption created by the energy transition process but also due to the accumulated problems regarding socioeconomic conditions, environmental health impacts, and well-being at the local level. The compound effects of multiple existing and emerging issues, including the divergent interpretations of health and the lack of holistic support mechanisms for inhabitants to navigate the changes in sociocultural and economic space, can harm locals’ health and well-being. The developed conceptual framework provides an important theoretical background to study the impacts on the mental and physical health, including social health and well-being, of the inhabitants living in the fossil-fuel-based industrial area. The CLD developed using this framework demonstrates the interacting points to avoid unintended consequences of energy transition. 


Hansson, S., Orru, K., Siibak, A., Bäck, A., Krüger, M., Gabel, F., & Morsut, C. (2020). Communication-related vulnerability to disasters: A heuristic framework. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 51, 101931. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101931 

The concept of social vulnerability has been increasingly applied in disaster literature, but its communicative drivers have remained understudied. In this article, we put forward a heuristic framework for explaining how communication-related factors may adversely affect people’s capacity to prepare for and respond to disasters. This will help researchers, policy makers, and practitioners in the field of disasters and crises to systematically identify individual, social-structural, and situational factors of vulnerability that shape how people access, understand, and act upon information about hazards. We integrate ideas from recent literature on information disorders – various forms and effects of false or harmful information that are characteristic to modern communication ecosystems – to improve our understanding of how the new media environments may transform the ways people learn about hazards and cope with disasters. 

Hansson, S., Orru, K., Torpan, S., Bäck, A., Kazemekaityte, A., Meyer, S.F., Ludvigsen, J., Savadori, L., Galvagni, A., & Pigrée, A. (2021). COVID-19 information disorder: Six types of harmful information during the pandemic in Europe. Journal of Risk Research, 24(3-4), 380-393. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1871058 

When various official or unofficial sources issue erroneous, misleading or contradicting information during a crisis, people who are exposed to this may behave in ways that cause harm to the health and well-being of themselves or others, e.g., by not taking appropriate risk reducing measures or blaming or harassing vulnerable groups. To work towards a typology of informational content that may increase people’s vulnerability in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, we explored 98 instances of potentially harmful information that spread in six European countries – France, Italy, Norway, Finland, Lithuania, and Estonia – between March and May 2020.

We suggest that during the pandemic, exposure to harmful information may have made people more vulnerable in six ways: (1) by discouraging appropriate protective actions against catching/spreading the virus, (2) by promoting the use of false (or harmful) remedies against the virus, (3) by misrepresenting the transmission mechanisms of the virus, (4) by downplaying the risks related to the pandemic, (5) by tricking people into buying fake protection against the virus or into revealing their confidential information, and (6) by victimising the alleged spreaders of the virus by harassment/hate speech. The proposed typology can be used to guide the development of risk communication plans to address each of these information-related vulnerabilities. 

Torpan, S., Hansson, S., Rhinard, M., Kazemekaityte, A., Jukarainen, P., Meyer, S.F., Schieffelers, A., Lovasz, G., & Orru, K. (2021). Handling false information in emergency management: A cross-national comparative study of European practices. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 57, 102151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102151 

During emergencies, exposure to false information can increase individual vulnerability. More research is needed on how emergency management institutions understand the effects of false information and what are the various approaches to handling it. Our document analysis and 95 expert interviews in eight European countries – Germany, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Hungary, Norway, Finland, and Estonia – show that approaches vary considerably: some have instituted central management of identifying and tackling false information while others prioritise the spreading of accurate information. A review of national practices and an analysis of recent crisis cases show that both approaches may be necessary. The diffusion of false information is strongly affected by the lack of timely and verifiable information from governments. We also find that in several countries, the emergence of false information is often associated with malicious foreign influence activities. Our study contributes to a better understanding of how the effects of false information are mitigated by the emergency management systems in Europe. 

Torpan, S., Hansson, S., Orru, K., Rhinard, M., Savadori, L., Jukarainen, P., Nævestad, T.-O., Meyer, S. F., Schieffelers, A., & Lovasz, G. (2023). European emergency managers on social media: Institutional arrangements and guidelines. International Journal of Emergency Services. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJES-08-2022-0041  

This paper offers an empirical overview of European emergency managers’ institutional arrangements and guidelines for using social media in risk and crisis communication. The authors collected and analysed material including publicly accessible relevant legal acts, policy documents, official guidelines, and press reports in eight European countries – Germany, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Hungary, Finland, Norway, and Estonia. Additionally, the authors carried out 95 interviews with emergency managers in the eight countries between September 2019 and February 2020.

The authors found that emergency management institutions’ social media usage is rarely centrally controlled and social media crisis communication was regulated with the same guidelines as crisis communication on traditional media. Considering this study’s findings against the backdrop of existing research and practice, the authors find support for a “mixed arrangement” model by which centralised policies work in tandem with decentralised practices on an ad hoc basis. Comparative insights about institutional arrangements and procedural guidelines on social media crisis communication in the studied countries could inform the future policies concerning social media use in other emergency management systems. This study includes novel, cross-national comparative data on the institutional arrangements and guidelines for using social media in emergency management in the context of Europe. 

Torpan, S., Hansson, S., Orru, K., Jukarainen, P., Gabel, F., Savadori, L., Meyer, S. F., Schieffelers, A., Lovasz, G., & Rhinard, M. (2024). Mitigating vulnerabilities with social media: A cross‐national study of European disaster managers’ practices. Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy, rhc3.12286. https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12286 

In this article, we provide an overview of the ways in which disaster managers in eight European countries use social media to mitigate people’s vulnerability to hazards. Our document analysis and 95 expert interviews in Germany, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Hungary, Finland, Norway, and Estonia revealed six distinct institutional social media practices that may reduce disaster vulnerability: sharing educational guidelines, informing and warning the public, identifying citizens’ concerns, identifying missing persons, sharing guidelines during disaster, and organizing volunteers. We discuss how these practices could affect people’s ability to access, understand, and react adequately to information about risks and hazards. Our findings can be used to improve guidelines for official crisis communication on social media and demonstrate the value of using social media in disaster risk reduction. 

Torpan, S., Orru, K., Hansson, S., & Klaos, M. (2025). Using a table-top exercise to identify communication-related vulnerability to disasters. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 119, 105264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105264

During emergencies, people may become more vulnerable due to difficulties with accessing and understanding crisis information and may react inadequately to hazards due to being exposed to false information. In this article, we explore how table-top exercises can be used as part of vulnerability assessment to systematically identify a range of barriers to disaster communication that may put people at risk.

We conducted a table-top exercise with disaster risk management practitioners, using a complex crisis scenario that included hazards arising from severe weather, disruptions of vital services, and the diffusion of harmful false information about the crisis. The participants were provided with specialised questionnaires, assessment tables that structured and facilitated the process of identifying vulnerable groups and the causes of their vulnerability throughout the exercise. The results suggest that the proposed table-top exercise format helps to foresee potential barriers to accessing crisis information and uncover capacity gaps within the authorities responsible for communication management during a disaster.


Current projects

Innovating Preparedness by Leveraging SYNERGIES and Enhancing Results of DRM Projects (SYNERGIES)   
Funder: European Commission, Horizon Europe Programme 
Period: 2023-2026 

The SYNERGIES project intends to promote preparedness with the coherent and synergic involvement of the different actors of disaster management. These actors include first and second responders, citizens, communities, education systems, authorities and public administrations, business companies and practitioners. The project will concentrate on five needs identified for disaster preparedness: i) involvement of all relevant actors in building preparedness; ii) strengthening preparedness education and training; iii) communicating with citizens; iv) management of spontaneous volunteers; v) ensuring sustainability of solutions for preparedness.

To address these needs SYNERGIES is leveraging the knowledge, experience, and results of five H2020 projects (ENGAGE, RESILOC, LINKS, IMPACT, BUILDERS), and one nationally funded project (Ready2Help). The results of these projects will be integrated with practitioners’ best practices and experiences, revised, and improved, increasing their level of maturity. Targeted research, including social science expertise, will be dedicated to covering remaining gaps and supporting the integration work. Three Real Preparedness Cases will offer the opportunity to orient the project work, evaluate the progress and demonstrate the final results. These Preparedness Cases are real situations in which stakeholders intend to improve preparedness with a better involvement and empowerment of citizens. The SYNERGIES activities will last 36 months with a Consortium composed of 17 partners, representative of all the types of stakeholders in DRM, including research organizations, business companies, first and second responders, civil society organizations, and authorities. 

Methodologies for Assessing the Real Costs to Health of Environmental Stressors (MARCHES) 
Funder: European Commission, Horizon Europe within the research cluster METEOR
Period: 2023-2026 

MARCHES will further develop and refine a methodology to assess health costs of environmental stressors and bring the findings to use in six European regions: (Denmark, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Spain and Sweden) and in one west-Balkan country (Kosovo). The objectives of MARCHES are: 

  • identifying exposure-response functions for novel health end-points 
  • by adding a disability dimension to health cost accounting 
  • setting a European standard for high-quality exposure modeling 
  • addressing drinking water nitrates with impact-pathway analysis. 

Our research group leads a survey in four countries (Kosovo, Estonia, Spain, and Denmark) to understand public beliefs about threats to environmental health such as air pollution, noise, and extreme weather events and acceptance of novel solutions for mitigating or adapting to these effects.  The results of this survey will contribute to the understanding of socioeconomic and environmental aspects related to public attitudes and knowledge of nature-based solutions for risk mitigation and improved environmental health. 

Smart and Sustainable Host UniverCities: Leveraging City-University Interactions to Further the Twin Green and Digital Transition (SUNSET) 
Funder: European Commission, Horizon-MSCA-2022-DN-01 
Period: 2024-2028

SUNSET aims to develop innovative research and training capacity around city-university interactions driving the EU’s green and digital transition towards climate neutrality and sustainable growth. The project aims to enhance the transformational capacity and resilience of urban systems and innovation ecosystems. In that sense, it brings together university researchers, city governments, innovation companies, research institutes and civil society organizations to investigate whether and how universities can successfully become key drivers of the twin transition in cities via their role as innovation partners, the implementation of campus living labs, and as architects of decision-making in governance ecosystems. The findings will lead to practical guidelines regarding the design and implementation of living labs for university and city management, tailored strategies to foster more inclusive and diverse urban ecosystems, and diverse forms of scientific outreach and dissemination. 

The doctoral candidate Ahmed Rezk at the Risk & Resilience Research Group within SUNSET network explores the contribution of universities to urban disaster risk preparedness and recovery. This includes investigating the collaboration formats in city-university interaction, the role of universities in fostering urban innovation in crisis management. Adopting a systems approach, considering cities as complex social-ecological-technological systems, the project aims to investigate the adoption of innovative solutions in disaster risk management in collaboration of universities and cities for fostering innovation in disaster preparedness in cities, and the role of societal acceptance and attitudes in the co-production of such innovations in cities. Through multiple case studies in diverse geographic, climatic, and socio-political contexts, this project contributes to understanding and fostering innovation in urban disaster management systems against natural and man-made crisis. 



Past projects

Building European Communities’ Resilience and Social Capital (BuildERS) 
Funder: European Commission, Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme 
Period: 2019-2022 

BuildERS aimed to generate knowledge and insights to devise recommendations for policies, plans, strategies, and competencies to build partnerships, networks, and trust, progressively fortifying social capital and resilience against future threats. Together with first responders, citizens, and other key actors, we created tools and innovations to enhance the social resilience and disaster responsiveness of European communities, focusing particularly on the most vulnerable segments of society. Strengthening the social capital, risk awareness and preparedness of the most vulnerable segments of the societies and communities will also increase understanding on what societal resilience comprises. BuildERS used several research methods such as i) stakeholder engagement with co-design and co-creation processes, ii) field surveying and questionnaires, iii) comparative research, iv) multiple case analysis.  

Kati Orru was the leader of the BuilDERS project’s work package on institutional aspects of resilience management and the coordinator of the Estonian research group. We explored theoretical conceptualisation of social vulnerability, resilience, risk perception, and social capital, offering in-depth analysis and novel insights. Contributing to the dynamic perspective of vulnerability, we developed frameworks to analyse how social vulnerability and communicative vulnerability are shaped in crises. Extensive research on the COVID-19 pandemic experiences of marginalised groups in Europe combined numerous expert interviews, workshops, and colloquium with representatives of care organisations such as soup kitchens, day centres, night shelters and long-term accommodation facilities with quantitative survey among the clients of their clients. Using this exclusive data, we gained multifaceted understanding of the factors whose interplay contributed to the harm sustained by these individuals during the pandemic. This includes the impact of low awareness among public authorities regarding diverse societal groups, as well as the role of care organisations in creating safety nets to protect marginalised populations. We examined various aspects of coping with the pandemic (i.e. material and psychological impacts), the environment of (mis)information, approaches to vulnerability in different European crisis management systems etc. Laying the groundwork for future research, we developed a novel, scenario-based vulnerability assessment framework. This framework guides relevant stakeholders in systematically thinking through categories of vulnerability unique to specific scenarios, enabling more tailored efforts to build communities’ resilience against critical events.

Findings from the project were published also in the form of a handbook:

  • Keränen, J., Airola, M., Molarius, R., Latvakoski, J., Lusikka, T., Morsut, C., Kuran, C. H. A., Orru, K., Hansson, S., Torpan, S., Nero, K., Tominga, A., Gabel, F., Schobert, M., Savadori, L., Mittone, L., Olson, A., Naevestad, T.-O., Rhinard, M., Berawi, M. A. (2022). Handbook to improve societal disaster resilience: BuildERS project findings. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Technology No. 406 https://doi.org/10.32040/2242-122X.2022.T406 
    Build-ERS project (2019-2022) has developed knowledge and insights to improve resilience in society. This has been done focusing on the ability and capacity of the most vulnerable to be prepared and respond to disasters. Improving and supporting their capacity to act will develop society as a whole to be prepared and respond to natural and man-made disasters. Thus, the societal resilience of European communities will increase. In the BuildERS project, it has become clear that the concept of vulnerability is not straightforward; it changes depending on the situation and is dynamic in its nature. Anyone can be vulnerable at a certain point of time and place. However, there are people who have a higher or very high risk of being vulnerable in certain situations.
    A range of practical solutions have been developed to support disaster management actors in assessing vulnerabilities and supporting vulnerable people, and improving the resilience of society against crises. These tools and guidelines help to assess different aspects of vulnerability, build new knowledge, or establish various forms of collaboration. A wide range of policy recommendations have been made to reduce vulnerability, build social capital, and raise risk awareness of the European population. Based on the research results and findings, the policy recommendations include key actions and new ways of working towards a more resilient society. BuildERS Policy recommendations include several key actions for both authorities and practitioners on different levels: EU, national and local. These together with the tools and guidelines developed provide guidance on what to do and how to act to help preparedness and respond to disasters.

Interactive tool for assessing crisis vulnerability  
Funder: University of Tartu experimental development grant, Estonian Rescue Board 
Period: 2022-2023 

The aim of the project was to develop an interactive tool for identifying the types of social vulnerability and the need for support in specific crisis situations or scenarios. The novel vulnerability assessment tool fulfils an important gap in integrating social aspects of vulnerability into risk analyses and crisis planning by Estonian Rescue Board. The tool helps to prioritise the vulnerability factors, assess the type and speed of the help needed, and determine the sources of information needed for more effective and target-specific crisis management. The tool can be later adapted also to the needs of other institutions tasked with crisis management (e.g. Police and Border Guard Board, Estonian Internal Security Service).  

EuRopean ObservAtory on Disaster risk and crisis MAnagement good Practices: way ahead (ROADMAP2) 
Funder: European Commission, Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) 
Period: 2023-2024 

To facilitate strategic and often complex decision-making activities along DRM cycle, there is a need for a common and shared understanding of the different cases that may occur and of solutions already applied. They may represent good practices (GPs) that decision-makers can refer to when making their choices. ROADMAP project (n. 101017776) contributed to establish a ‘Doctrine on disaster risk and crisis management’, intended as a shared understanding of disaster management between decision-makers and scientific/academic actors, based on suitable selection and sharing of experiences, GPs and implemented solutions. Building on ROADMAP results, ROADMAP2 project had two main objectives:  

  • “Establishing a Community for the European Observatory (CEO) of good practices, to improve the knowledge, understanding and replicability of GPs in DRM”. A refined concept model for CEO will be built, implemented and tested. Ideal CEO composition as well as operation rules and activities will be established, together with carefully planned strategies to keep the CEO members involved and active.  
  • “Knowledge building and sharing through a cycle of seminars & collaborative workshops based on GPs in DRM and their application in thematic multi-risk scenarios”. This will be achieved relying on GPs and exemplifying scenarios built during the project, that will be tested/demonstrated/shared through seminars/workshops/exercises within the KN framework. Also, the ROADMAP Solutions Explorer, a web-tool serving as repository of GPs, will be further exploited favoring its filling and use by civil protection decision-makers and stakeholders. This way, the project will contribute to the overall objective of establishing a multidisciplinary thematic community that will support the Science Pillar of the KN and also, through seminars/workshops/test exercises and tools, the Capacity development and sharing of knowledge and expertise in civil protection and disaster management. 

Our research group produced three flash reports on the findings of the project:

  • Orru, K., Siimsen, I., Hansson, S., Di Bucci, D., & Morsut, C. (2024). Using foresight techniques in longer-term Disaster Risk Management. ROADMAP2 Project Flash Report 1. https://doi.org/10.60756/FR1DOI  
    In the context of modern disasters, anticipating and preparing for emerging risks requires comprehensive risk assessment using foresight techniques. Moving beyond past-oriented paradigms, disaster risk should be conceptualised as a dynamic system. Foresight techniques, such as horizon scanning and scenario building, help to identify key drivers of change and analyse the impact of different future conditions. The European Union’s Disaster Resilience Goals emphasise the systematic application of these methods in DRM. However, legal frameworks for foresight analysis in DRM are underdeveloped. The ROADMAP2 project explores how foresight techniques are used in risk assessments to guide adaptive, preventive or preparedness actions in the civil protection system. On this topic, the flash report presents the following good practices: 
    • Tasmanian heatwave case: Riddell and colleagues conducted a foresight exercise on heatwave risks in Tasmania, developing future scenarios and integrating them into a dynamic risk assessment to propose risk reduction methods. 
    • Imagining the future of pandemics: WHO’s foresight analysis aims to support informed decision-making on the transition from emergency response to future preparedness for pandemics and epidemics. 
    • National Risk Assessment in Finland: anticipate sudden events that require deviation from normal activities, identifying and assessing risks with a wide national impact in 15 threat scenarios. 
    • National Risk Assessment in Belgium: contributes to the mid-term review of the Sendai Framework by providing an overview of existing disaster risk reduction practices in Belgium and insights into future perspectives. 
    • Canada’s National Risk Profile: reduce disaster risk and increase resilience by raising awareness, identifying gaps in emergency management, and supporting federal risk assessment and climate change adaptation efforts. 
  • Nahkur, O., Orru, K., Joao-Hussar, I., & Di Bucci, D. (2024). Practices of engaging people in vulnerable situations in disaster risk management. ROADMAP2 Project Flash Report 2. https://doi.org/10.71524/fr2DOI 
    Involving people in vulnerable situations in DRM is crucial to building a more inclusive system. Exclusion can increase the impact of crises, so inclusive DRM aims to address vulnerability and promote equity through capacity building and empowerment. The 2nd flash report of the ROADMAP2 project describes several good practices for including people in vulnerable situations in DRM, further developing the analysis started in the ROADMAP project. The European Union’s Disaster Resilience Goals and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction emphasise the importance of increasing disaster risk awareness and preparedness of the whole society, including and empowering vulnerable groups. On this topic, the flash report presents the following good practices: 
    • Paré pas Paré (‘Ready or not?’): increase disaster risk awareness and behaviour among 8-12 year olds, and improve their confidence and mental health, through seven natural hazards, including cyclones and volcanic eruptions. 
    • Dopomoha: online information and support platform for Ukrainian refugees in Romania, allowing refugees to request the resources they need and public authorities, private companies and NGOs/volunteers to register their available resources. 
    • Individual Evacuation Plan for people with special needs in Japan: personalised evacuation strategies through proactive identification, comprehensive assessment and inclusive coordination, enhancing disaster preparedness and community resilience. 
    • ABCD model/Snowman method: integrate the strengths and resources of older community members into DRM strategies, recognising them as active contributors and building community resilience. 
  • Hansson, S., Randla, K., Kirt, K., Orru, K., Morsut, C., Faga, G., Lamsaf, H., & Di Bucci, D.  (2024). Good practices of communication in disaster risk management. ROADMAP2 Project Flash Report 3. https://doi.org/10.71524/fr3DOI  
    Disaster risk management can be thought of as consisting of four phases: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Communication – exchanging of messages and interpersonal meaning making – plays an essential role in each phase. Communication concerning the first two phases is called risk communication and it involves messaging aimed at shaping people’s understanding of the causes and possible consequences of hazards – their risk awareness – as well as decisions and actions taken to mitigate or prepare for the future impact of hazards. Communication concerning the latter two phases is called emergency or crisis communication and the aim of it is to minimise casualties and loss during a particular crisis event and support swift recovery after the event. Understanding what risk, emergency and crisis communication practices best serve these aims is particularly relevant at a time when the plurality of technological means and channels of communication has skyrocketed, yet reaching various audiences remains a challenge and people are often exposed to harmful false information. The report describes the following good practices: 
    • Crisis preparedness app ‘Be prepared!’ 
    • Situational awareness information system ‘SITREP’ 
    • Location-based SMS threat alert systems 
    • ‘Safe Village’ and ‘Safe People’ wildfire safety programs 
    • ‘You are part of the Norwegian preparedness’ campaign 
    • ‘I don’t take risk’ campaign 

Creation of the process and risk management model for the governance area of the Estonian Ministry of Social Affairs (RIHAMU) 
Funder: Estonian Ministry of Social Affairs 
Period: 2023–2024

The RIHAMU project adopted a sociotechnical systems approach to develop directive materials for creating a process and risk management model the Estonian Ministry of Social Affairs. The aim was to establish baselines for: i) compiling a priority scheme of services and processes for crisis situations; ii) identifying cross-dependencies between vital services, resources and activities within the Ministry’s governance; iii) applying datasets and registers to evaluate service needs in the domain.   

The vitality of a service depends on two main factors: its criticality to the life, health, and property of clients, and the number of service users. The latter is related to the vulnerability of people. During a crisis, in addition to the regular clients of a service, who are known and registered by the service provider, many new individuals may need the service due to their increased vulnerability in this situation.  To account for these changes in the need for a service and estimate service’s priority during crises, we used the crisis vulnerability assessment framework proposed by the Risk and Resilience Research Group, along with the Vulnerability Assessment Tool developed based on this framework in collaboration with the Rescue Board. We conducted a table-top exercise with the Social Insurance Board to identify groups that would become vulnerable due to an interruption in one of the services—specifically, the payment of social benefits—and to analyse the cascading effects of this service failure. Vulnerability Assessment tool also allows for identification of cascading effects of service interruptions, including the need for alternative services, the type of help required due to these interruptions (e.g. material or psychosocial assistance, information), how quickly the help is needed, and which authority should provide it. Additionally, we mapped registers and datasets that can provide information about the number of people affected by this scenario. However, although the vulnerability assessment framework guides us to the data sources that can be used to consider various factors of vulnerability and estimate the need for social services in crises, several more developments are necessary for their effective use in practice, following the completion of RIHAMU project. 

A science-based future view of the rescue network 
Funder: Estonian Rescue Board 
Period: 2023–2024 

The aim of the project was to develop and prepare a long-term strategic view of the rescue network for the Estonian Rescue Board. Risk & Resilience Research Group has contributed to the identification of future trends and their potential impact on the need for rescue services. Drawing from academic publications, reports published by various public and non-governmental institutions as well as recent statistics, we first conducted a literature review to give a comprehensive overview of existing knowledge in the field. Based on the literature review, we then compiled a model comprising trends and factors that should be considered when planning for the needs and the spatial layout of the rescue network. The model also included specific indicators and data sources that can be used to assess the impact of the trends at hand. Additionally, we organised roundtable discussions with representatives from the Ministry of the Interior and the Rescue Board to assess the relevance of the trends identified. 

System approach for the urban environment and health (SURREAL) 
Funder: European Commission, Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 956780 
Duration: 2021-2024 

SURREAL was a 4-year Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network (ITN) project, addressing the complexity of urban health through a holistic perspective that encompasses physical, social, and institutional factors. It aimed to foster an integrated understanding of the intricate links between urban environment exposures, behaviours, and health outcomes. Collaboratively involving 20 academic and non-academic institutions across the EU and Israel, SURREAL supports 15 early-stage researchers in exploring these dynamics. The project aimed to equip researchers with interdisciplinary and intersectoral insights, enabling the development of effective interventions to enhance health and health equity at both individual and urban scales. 

Our research group explored environmental and health disparities in areas with industrial contamination. Following studies have been published: 

  • Veber, T., Dahal, U., Lang, K., Orru, K., & Orru, H. (2022). Industrial Air Pollution Leads to Adverse Birth Outcomes: A Systematized Review of Different Exposure Metrics and Health Effects in Newborns. Public Health Rev, 43. https://doi.org/10.3389/phrs.2022.1604775 
    This review study highlights the link between negative birth outcomes and industrial pollution. Then, the project focuses on the oil-shale industrial regions in Ida-Viru County, Estonia. The research explores the connection between negative birth outcomes and industrial pollution, as well as other socioeconomic factors like proximity to industrial areas, ethnicity, and education level. 
  • Dahal, U., Veber, T., Åström, D. O., Tamm, T., Albreht, L., Teinemaa, E., Orru, K., & Orru, H. (2022). Perinatal Health Inequalities in the Industrial Region of Estonia: A Birth Registry-Based Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(18), Article 18. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191811559 
    This epidemiological study, which analysed 208,313 Estonian birth records, that health inequalities in Ida-Viru County, attributed to PM2.5 pollution and educational levels, were notable compared to national averages. The research highlighted that mothers from Russian ethnic backgrounds faced increased risks of adverse birth outcomes nationwide, including Ida-Viru. Additionally, proximity to oil shale industries within 5km was linked to higher low-birth-weight, and within 3km, to a greater risk of premature births.  

Another area of research examined the impact of ongoing energy transition activities on local health and well-being.  

  • Dahal, U., Orru, K., Orru, H., & Dijst, M. (2024). Green dreams, local realities: Complexities of the European Union’s energy transition to ensure local health and well-being in a fossil fuel-based industrial region. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 106, 107520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107520  
    This study shows that the combination of accumulated socioeconomic issues at the local level and the disruption caused by the energy transition has made it difficult to safeguard and promote local health and well-being. This has particularly affected the ability of local residents to adapt to ongoing socioeconomic changes, leading to challenges in physical, mental, and social health and well-being. 


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