25.10 Andres Arrak

Maarja Mere: Kokkuvõte Andres Arraku loengust

Teisipäeval, 25. oktoobril 2011 käis Rahvusvaheliste Suhete Ringile loengut pidamas majandusteadlane Andres Arrak, kes rääkis teemal „Kas Euroopa majandus on jätkusuutlik?“

Raamatusoovitus: „Sinine taevas, mustad oliivid“

Euroopa Liitu astudes lubati rikaste ja ilusate klubi, kuid poliitikud „ei lõpetanud lauset“. Lubati ilusat abielu, kuid siis tuli „make-up“ maha.

See, mis praegu toimub, on hoopis väärtustekriis, mitte finants- ega majanduskriis. Väärtushinnangute ümbermõtestamise periood. Kui kaua on hästi läinud, tekib valede majandusotsuste akumulatsioon. 2004.-2005. aastal alanud majandustõusu tingimustes sai hästi minna ka nendel, kes ei olnud väga nutikad. Majanduskriis peatab ajutiselt valede majandusotsuste akumulatsiooni.

Kuigi majandusvaldkond ei suuda ei ülemist ega alumist pöördepunkti ette ennustada ega ära hoida, eksisteerib see, kuna on ära kirjeldanud kõik käitumisviisid ja -mudelid, mis sinna viivad. Kuid majandusteadus ja –teadlased ei saa igal üksikisikul eraldi keelata neid malle järgimast, mistõttu kriisid ja krahhid ka tekivad. Kas need, kellel enne hästi läks, on hakanud teisiti käituma? Ei, nad käituvad samade reeglite järgi, kuid keskkond on muutunud.

Keskkonnamuutuse 4 märksõna:

1. AASIA – 1700. aastal moodustasid Hiina ja India 48% maailma majandustoodangust, siis uinusid „okasroosikese unne“ ning 1970. aastal moodustasid vähem, kuid täna nad tulevad tagasi. See toob kaasa raskuskeskme muutuse. Algselt majanduse raskuskeskme sisemereks Vahemeri, seejärel Atlandi ookean, kuid täna juba Vaikne ookean. Selline protsess toob kaasa Euroopa marginaliseerumise, mis ei too ka Eestile kasu. Eesti sõltub ekspordist, kuid tänast seisukorda vaadates peab Eesti Euroopast Venemaa ja Aasia poole tagasi pöörduma.

2. DEMOGRAAFIA – Täna demograafilises mõttes toimuv hullem kui AIDS ja tuumasõjad kokku, kuna seda ei saa ära hoida. Võlakriisis on just Kreeka, Itaalia, Portugal, jt, kuna nende sotsiaalse heaolu mudelid pärinevad 50.-60ndatest aastatest, kui oli 5-6 maksumaksjat ühe pensionäri kohta. Nüüd seal olukord üks kahele, Itaalias 30 aasta pärast üks ühele. Ka Eesti kõigub juba üks ühele piiri peal. Seniseid sotsiaalse heaolu mudeleid pole sellise demograafilise struktuuri puhul võimalik finantseerida. Demograafia on vääramatu jõud, mis on majanduse ja sotsiaalvööndiga väga oluliselt seotud.

3. TEADMISTEPÕHINE MAJANDUS – Kui mitusada aastat on domineerinud tööliste püramiid, et madalamad astmed allpool, kõrgemad tipus, siis tootmismajandusest teadmistepõhisesse majandusse üle minnes pöördub kolmnurk ümber. Nii läheb odav tööjõud üle Aasiasse. Eurooplastel pole võimalik selles konkureerida, kuna tahavad oluliselt rohkem palka ja paremaid töötingimusi. Eestil valik, kas läheb väga odava tööjõu pakkumisega kaasa või teeb kallist ning spetsiifilist tööd. Euroopas odavad töökohad kadunud, kuid kas kõrgtehnoloogilisi töökohti tuleb samas mahus asemele.

Euroopa on täna laisk ja vana. Tänases Euroopas on kõige haruldasem ressurss inimene, kuna näiteks tööealistest itaallannadest tööturul vaid natuke üle poole. Eurooplane töötab keskmiselt vaid 400 tundi aastas, keskmine rootslane on haige aastas ühe kuu, keskmine itaallane puudub pühade tõttu töölt 8 nädalat. Sellest tuleneb laenatud tarbimisele põhineva majandusmudeli krahh, sest suhe läheb järjest halvemaks, kuid valitsejad püüavad juurde laenates heaolu jätkata. Laenatud tarbimise majandusmudeli aeg on läbi. Kahjuks Eesti ei jõudnudki kunagi selles Rootsi tasemele.

Kreeka puhul pole kriisi tekitajad vaid finants- ja majandusküsimused, põhjustajaks on ka peremudel – meestest vanuses kuni 35 eluaastat elab 55% kodus.

4. VÕLAKRIIS – Tänane tarbimisühiskonna mudel põhineb neoklassikalisel mudelil, eeldab, et tarbija maksimeerib kasulikkust. Lahendab otsuste tegemisel maksimeerimisülesanded, kus laiem/suurem on alati parem. Paljude riikide majandus põhines harjumusel, et auto tuleb välja vahetada iga kahe aasta tagant. Kui raskete aegade tulekul vahetati autot kolme aasta pärast, kukkus neis riikides majandus kokku. Seetõttu ongi tänased heaoluriigid võlas. Kreeka on esimene rikas riik, kes on pankrotis, kuid ei oska midagi teha.

Keskkonnamuutusi vaadates on Euroopa seis nutune, kuna majanduslikus mõttes marginaliseerunud, demograafiliselt halvas seisus, laenamine meid enam ei päästa.

Mis on rahaliidu häda?

Kui võrrelda rahaliidu loomist IMFi loomisega, siis viimases hakati algusest peale kohe ühiskassasse raha koguma, et päästa hätta sattunud riike (nüüdseks abi vajanud Läti, Kreeka, Portugal). Euroopa rahaliidu loojad olid sinisilmsed, kuna ei loonud ühiskassat. Uskusid, et seda pole vaja, kuna juba olemas 2 olulist Maastrichti kriteeriumit, mis peaksid kriisid ära hoidma: 1) jooksev SKP peab jääma alla 2%; 2) riigivõlg ei tohi olla üle 60% (kusjuures Euroopa keskmine riigivõlg juba 80%).

Eesti on selles suhtes tubli, kuna ei lubanud defitsiidis riigieelarvet vastu võtta. Meil on unikaalne situatsioon, sest pole suurt välisvõlga, seega puuduvad ka suured intressimaksed. Rahaliidu probleem on, et toimib nagu islamiusku astumine ehk sellest pole võimalik välja astuda. Ausat väljaastumise protokolli pole kirja pandud: Kreeka välja astudes järgneks börsidel paanika. Puudub ausa väljaastumise protseduur, mistõttu ELi juhid on plindris.

Mida peaks Kreeka tegema?

Ettevõtte puhul lihtne – pankrot, kuid riik ei saa pankrotti minna. Kaks lahendust: 1) Devalveerimine – viidi edukalt läbi Argentiinas, kuid Kreekal pole võimalik seda teha, kuna tal pole oma raha. Devalveerimine ka olemuselt amoraalne, kuna kõik ei teinud vigu, kuid kõik peavad tagajärgede pärast kannatama. 2) Sisemine devalveerimine ehk kulude kärpimine – Kreekas kärpimiseks tuleb ametiühingud tankidega laiali saata. Me ei tea, kes saab Kreekas peale järgmisi valimisi võimule ning kas kärped jätkuvad. Kreeka valetamist on aastakümneid sallitud, et takistada tema langemist kommunistide kätte. Seega pole Kreeka kriisi lahendamine võimalik.

Mis siis nüüd saab?

Kreekat ei saa välja visata, poliitikud oma minevikulubaduste ohvrid. Nii hakatakse tõenäoliselt raha juurde trükkima, et saaks võlgnikele ära maksta. Meid ootab ees oluline inflatsioonilaine. Raha hakkavad juurde trükkima nii Euroopa kui ka Ameerika pangad. Dollar aga on maailma raha juurdetrükitud dollaritele püsib endiselt nõudlus, mis aga ei kukuta dollarit sellises tempos, nagu ta langeda võiks. Raha juurde trükkides ostame end võlakriisist välja, kuna ka kõik teised trükivad raha juurde.

Euroopa on vana ja laisk. Oleme küll Euroopas, kuid „pole päris see pruut, kellele kosja läksime“.

Mõned küsimuste vastused:

Kas Kolmas maailmasõda on võimalik? Kolmas maailmasõda pole käivitunud, kuna keegi ei võidaks. Ka Hiinas ja Jaapanis ootab varsti ees demograafiline vananemine ning majanduskasv saab peagi läbi, ka neil esineb majanduses „mulliefekt“.

Miks on maailma raha just USA dollar? USA dollar maailma raha, vaid kuna seal on endiselt kõige stabiilsem majandus. Dollar sai maailmarahaks, kuna üha rohkem riike hakkas vahetuses ning välismaksetes kasutama dollarit. USA võttis endale kohustuse tagada likviidsust ning samal ajal kohustuse siduda dollar kullaga.

Kas pensionäre on võimalik muuta kapitalistideks, et hakkaksime taas ise enda pensionipõlve kindlustama? Laias laastus pensionid kestnud 100 aastat, kuid vahepeal inimesed on maalt linna kolinud, jätnud lapsed tegemata, ostavad poest süüa, kuid tahavad ikka vara peansionile minna ning palju raha saada. Kogu peremudel on vale. Vanasti elas 4 põlvkonda koos, kaks põlvkonda pidasid üleval nii noored kui vanad. Siis polnud võimalik pensionile minna. Nüüd nõuame valitsuselt raha. Pensionide aeg on 20 aasta pärast läbi.

Konspekteeris Maarja Mere

On 28th November, the guest lecturer in RSR was Marina Kaljurand who gave lecture on “Cyber Security – challenges and potential responses”. She has served as the Ambassador of Estonia to USA, Mexico, Russia, Kazahstan and Israel. She has also been the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia. Currently, she is a Chair of the Global Commission on the Stability of Cyberspace.

First time when Marina Kaljurand learned about cyber security was in 2007 when Estonia was under politically motivated cyberattacks. Back then she was an Estonian ambassador to Russia and she had to explain what is happening in Estonia – DDoS-attacks. It was important to talk about this because cyber does not have borders and in this field, cooperation is necessary. She said that states are not allowed to take any illegal actions and according to international law they must stop every illegal action that is transiting their country. It was known back then that cyberattacks came from Russian territory – Estonia had all the legal instruments in place, but the will was missing (there was a cooperation between allies but not with Russia).

In year of Snowden’s disclosure, Kaljurand was posted to the US. She said that the US changed a lot during these times and question of trust was the most important. Estonia was the first country to have a bilateral agreement in cyber security with the US and it was used as a hook to bring Obama to Tallinn (he came later, though). For Estonian diplomats, it is very important to represent our country because usually nobody cares about us and many even do not know (still think that we are part of the USSR). That was the reason we had to find our niche – which is cyber (e-lifestyle, cyber security) – and now it opens the doors and starts the conversations.

Currently there are 84 global bodies dealing with cyber security. Marina Kaljurand is the Chair of the Global Commission on the Stability of Cyberspace. At first, they were hesitating to include Russian and Chinese experts but as it is a global commission, they need people from different countries. They also have Jeff Moss and Joseph Nye, also human rights activists, and civil society experts. Commission is a multistakeholder. Governments need to cooperate in order to be successful because there are a lot of actors in cyber area. There is an ideological division in between of how the ICT is seen – one side (especially the West) sees it beneficial (lets do it!) and another (i.e. Russia and China) side sees the use of the ICT as interfering (colour revolutions, influencing internal politics). It is difficult to cooperate between two divisions.

Cyber is not only for IT geeks, there are so many fields – diplomacy, international affairs, law, etc. For Kaljurand, cyber security is about stability, it is an open, secure, stable, and accessible Internet. 65% of people are not online yet, they are to join us and we need to have stable and secure Internet. She said that we have to raise the awareness to countries who have no idea what is happening in cyber field. Thus, although she had no idea what all the 84 bodies are doing, she was happy that there are so many of them who are raising the awareness.

In 2013, it was decided by the UN GGE that international law applies to cyber space. The question is about how (jurisdiction and sovereignty). When is the sovereignty of a state violated (for example, in case of malware or when somebody really dies because of a cyber-attack?) UN is the only global organization, but it is from the 1940s. UN will never agree on everything, thus we need a division of like-minded states who have the same understanding and norms on how to behave in cyber space. For example, norm is that it is not okay to attack financial institutions during the peace time. Every country should be interested in having common norms, but it is not possible to agree because of the ideological divisions. If UN cannot work on that, then a group of likeminded countries can. Other bodies are the EU and NATO and both have its roles, for example, cyber is the 5th domain of operations (in addition to air, space, land, maritime). There is a NATO Centre of Excellence in Tallinn. The aim of cyber stability is to avoid misunderstandings (confidence building is getting people together, OECD is doing an excellent work there).

Kaljurand also spoke about Estonia’s e-voting. She used Hack the Pentagon – hackers were asked to hack a system to find vulnerabilities – example and she wants to do the same in Estonia with e-voting. She believes that we have a good system but there is so much criticism from abroad and we need a PR-event - Hack Estonian e-voting. We need international hackers for that. Government is not ready yet but she is still convincing it. We need to face challenges but not to step back. It may happen that people perceive it as negative PR (hackers are hacking Estonia) but we need to explain a lot what are we doing and why. We were lucky to have an ID-crisis in 2017 because we started to feel ourselves too comfortable.

What is the future of UN GGE? Has it failed because in the last meeting the participating countries did not reach a consensus?

Internet of Things, terrorism, international law, norms, confidence building measures, capacity building – GGE is looking these five fields. GGE was supposed to write a report (goal was not to go back from what was agreed two years earlier). Kaljurand does not think that coming years show a will of agreeing on something, she said that coming years will be for educating.

She also said that we need to start asking something for return. For example, if some country wants assistance in e-taxation, then it must make a political statement (international law applies to cyber space or a statement about human rights). If a country is not willing to make a statement, then it should ask for an assistance from some other country.

How to deal with Russia and China?

She has no answer to that. Balkanization of Internet (different countries have different Internets). She does not see that we could find common ground with China or Russia because of the big ideological differences. It may happen that states reach the point where they agree that cyberattacks are not okay. 2007 nobody died, it was just humiliating. All the cyberattacks have been kind of mild but if cyber 9/11 happens then the world would come together, and states would have more will and intentions to agree on some rules. It is a grey zone if you do not have rules. People get to together usually when something bad happens, it has not happened with cyber yet.

Tech-people can do attribution, but it has a political dimension as well, as it depends on the politicians (do they have the courage to say it out or not). She referred to former Minister of Defence Jaak Aaviksoo who said that we did reasonable attribution and our conclusion is that when somebody does everything like a dog then most probably it is a dog. Attribution is a political question and increasingly states should say that they were attacked by this or that country.

You can buy cyber weapons from the black market but it’s too primitive. It will change with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and internet of things, it will be cheaper for terrorists. So far it has not been used. KRATT – Estonian law on AI (obligations, responsibilities). Finland, company who has AI in its board, EE-FIN are competing on who will have the law first.

Why are there so many diplomatic efforts (84)?

She does not know what all of them are doing. On the one side, it is good that so many institutions are discussing cyber security. 2004 or 2007 nobody was discussing cyber but today everybody is discussing it. Her commission tries to look at what others are doing. It is good to have so many even if they duplicate. It is important to discuss and educate people.

Cyber security is connected to open internet. Are the EU and US values the same if something goes south?

US is very vocal about open internet, freedom of the Internet. They are strong supporters of human rights online and open internet. There are differences how countries see intelligence etc but basically, we are on the same side. We may disagree on small things, but we share the same principles and understanding.

Could you elaborate more on EU’s role (EU diplomacy toolbox) concerning cyber security?

Cyber diplomacy toolbox – if something happens how do we react. International law allows retaliation. We have regulations. What are the measures in case of cyberattack against a member state? All the rules apply to cyber security (political statements, sanctions etc). The same as the EU has done in the case of Crimea. In the EU it is easier than in NATO. In NATO, there is no mechanism of what to do in case of an attack.

However, there is a problem with the EU and overregulation - EU is very happy when it can regulate something. EU is not a single market, with cyber it is more complicated, there are more regulations. Some regulations are needed because you need to have some frames. You have to know what is allowed and what is not. It is difficult to find a balance.

How Is the cooperation with industries?

Estonia is cooperating pretty well with the industries. All industries (Microsoft, Facebook) complained that governments were not cooperating enough. Industries have ideas. States will not give away authority on retaliation, attribution etc. It is about attitudes (I know how to do my job!). Governments are starting to understand that they can’t do anything without industries. In the end, they have IT-nerds, governments cannot afford them. Hackers are going to school and teach cyber hygiene to students. Teachers were negative until they started to cooperate with the policemen. She said that hackers despite their image are not bad guys.

How much is Estonia an ideal case? How to implement it to other countries?

Estonia is doing well. Other countries need to find what is suitable to them. They don’t need to copy; every country (state) can find something what is interesting to them. Estonia needs to introduce what we are doing and urge others to find what is interesting to them. You can always do the same thing but with going around the corner.

Konspekteeris Kert Ajamaa