{"id":89,"date":"2020-01-14T12:51:19","date_gmt":"2024-04-04T02:34:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/2019-review-no-take-backs\/"},"modified":"2024-04-18T14:11:34","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T11:11:34","slug":"2019-review-no-take-backs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/2019-review-no-take-backs\/","title":{"rendered":"2019 in Review: \u2018No Take Backs?\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u2018No take backs,\u2019 is perhaps a staple of playground rules, but an improbability in international law. As politics change, powers wax and wane, and sketches of borders are erased and redrawn, the recognition of de facto states fluctuates. In 2019, Taiwan lost the recognition of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, and Kosovo lost Palau, Togo, the Central African Republic, Ghana, and Nauru. Each withdrawal carries myriad rationale and ramifications\u2026 let\u2019s dig in.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Recognition and its Implications<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The recognition of de facto states is often a complex political and social process. The process is, nevertheless, crucial. As Thomas De Waal states in <a href=\"https:\/\/carnegieeurope.eu\/2018\/12\/03\/uncertain-ground-engaging-with-europe-s-de-facto-states-and-breakaway-territories-pub-77823\">Uncertain Ground: Engaging with Europe\u2019s De Facto States and Breakaway Territories<\/a>: \u201cdiplomatic recognition\u2026 provide(s) the entry ticket to the international club of states\u2026 lack of recognition leaves the de facto states outside the door.\u201d The politics of recognition are often dictated by external and internal political concerns projected on relations (or lack thereof) with the de facto state. Romania, for an example of internal factors, does not <a href=\"https:\/\/balkaninsight.com\/2015\/10\/28\/romania-continues-not-to-recognize-kosovo-10-28-2015\/\">recognize<\/a> Kosovo, (most likely) because of its own restive ethnic minority in Transylvania. The United States, as an example of external factors, does not <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/u-s-relations-with-taiwan\/\">recognize<\/a> Taiwan in an attempt to bolster relations with Beijing. (these, of course, are not the only factors at play, but they serve as good examples regardless) Thus, the 2019 reversals of recognition of Taiwan and Kosovo carry significant internal and external political baggage with implications ricocheting beyond Taiwan and Kosovo.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Taiwan: All that Glitters is Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2019, within four days of each other, Taiwan lost two Pacific partners\u2014Kiribati and the Solomon Islands\u2014which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559\">shifted<\/a> their relations to the People\u2019s Republic of China. The Solomon Islands and Kiribati are two valuable nations in China\u2019s ever growing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-pacific-china-solomonislands\/solomon-islands-plans-due-diligence-tour-on-taiwan-ties-idUSKCN1TP0Z4\">incursion<\/a> into the Pacific (check out the previous blog <a href=\"https:\/\/defactostates.ut.ee\/blog\/conflict-and-copper-path-bougainville%E2%80%99s-independence-referendum\">post<\/a> on Bougainville for more information about China\u2019s interest in the Pacific). The Pacific Islands are also important for Taiwan, and compromise approximately <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3025816\/beijing-offers-development-fund-if-solomon-islands-breaks\">one third<\/a> of the nations\u2019 formal alliances. But, China\u2019s financial magnetism is proving a better opportunity for the Pacific islands.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the Solomon Islands\u2019 \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-pacific-china-solomonislands\/solomon-islands-plans-due-diligence-tour-on-taiwan-ties-idUSKCN1TP0Z4\">due diligence<\/a>\u201d \u2013researching China\u2019s relationships with other Pacific island nations (Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, and Papua New Guinea)\u2013 the nation decided to pursue a more prosperous relationship with China. Financially, a switch in recognition proved more lucrative for the Solomon Islands, especially when China offered to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3025816\/beijing-offers-development-fund-if-solomon-islands-breaks\">\u201cbankroll a development fund for the Solomon Islands.\u201d<\/a> Chinese financial interest in the Solomon Islands is nothing new. China, after all, receives two-thirds of the Solomon Islands exports. The switch in recognition does not come without ramifications. Anti-corruption organization Transparency Solomon Islands has expressed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3025816\/beijing-offers-development-fund-if-solomon-islands-breaks\">concern<\/a> the nation will be unable to resist China\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Kiribati, a 33 island chain with a population around 115,000 people, China\u2019s economic promises proved more attractive than continued relations with Taiwan. Among other alleged aid was the promise of commercial airlines, something Taiwanese diplomats <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2019\/sep\/20\/taiwan-loses-second-ally-in-a-week-as-kiribati-switches-to-china\">claim<\/a> is simply unrealistic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-315\" src=\"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/398\/taiwan_blog_scmp-300x188.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"516\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/398\/taiwan_blog_scmp-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/398\/taiwan_blog_scmp.jpg 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 825px) 100vw, 825px\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source of the image:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/comment\/opinion\/article\/3019711\/will-taiwan-choose-china-or-choose-world-its-next-presidential\">https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/comment\/opinion\/article\/3019711\/will-taiwan-choose-china-or-choose-world-its-next-presidential<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>An Election: Taiwan, Beijing, and the Fight for Recognition<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Solomon Islands\u2019 and Kiribati\u2019s withdrawal of recognition has garnered a significant international response, especially in light of Taiwan\u2019s recent presidential election.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After Taiwan lost the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, Beijing placed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3027673\/re-elect-president-tsai-ing-wen-2020-and-taiwan-will-lose-all\">blame<\/a> with the nation\u2019s president, Tsai Ing-wen. Xiakeado\u2014a social media outlet for the Communist Party\u2019s propaganda machine People\u2019s Daily\u2014claimed: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3027673\/re-elect-president-tsai-ing-wen-2020-and-taiwan-will-lose-all\">\u201cas long as the DPP (Tsai\u2019s party) is in power, sooner or later Taiwan will have zero diplomatic allies left\u2026 only by first improving cross-strait mutual trust can Taiwan open up its \u2018international space.\u2019\u201d<\/a> \u00a0It is true Taiwan has become increasingly isolated under Tsai: however, the culprit maybe Beijing, not necessarily Tsai\u2019s policy. China <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3027673\/re-elect-president-tsai-ing-wen-2020-and-taiwan-will-lose-all\">blocked<\/a> Taiwan\u2019s membership in the World Health Organization and the International Civil Aviation Organization.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a rejection of Beijing\u2019s influence, Tsai was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2020\/01\/11\/asia\/taiwan-election-intl\/index.html\">re-elected<\/a> in an overwhelming majority on January 11th. The fight for keeping (and growing) recognitions, however, continues\u2026 especially as China continues to project influence in the Pacific. The outlook isn\u2019t all negative. In a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-taiwan-diplomacy-tuvalu\/tuvalu-rejects-china-offer-to-build-islands-and-retains-ties-with-taiwan-idUSKBN1XV0H8\">bid<\/a> to expand its influence to Tuvalu, China offered to build artificial islands to help the tiny nation grapple with rising sea levels. Tuvalu rejected China\u2019s offer in a statement that explicitly re-affirmed the nation\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-taiwan-diplomacy-tuvalu\/tuvalu-rejects-china-offer-to-build-islands-and-retains-ties-with-taiwan-idUSKBN1XV0H8\">commitment<\/a> to Taiwan. In fact, Tuvalu suggested uniting Taiwan\u2019s remaining Pacific allies\u2014Palau, the Marshall Islands, Nauru, and Tuvalu\u2014in an effort to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-50501747\">\u201ccounter the influence from mainland China.\u201d<\/a> What becomes of this \u2018group\u2019 is yet to be seen; nevertheless, Taiwan continues to fight for recognition under the sustained leadership of Tsai.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-314\" src=\"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/398\/blog_cagle-300x225.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"618\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/398\/blog_cagle-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/398\/blog_cagle.png 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 825px) 100vw, 825px\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source of the image:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cagle.com\/paresh-nath\/2010\/07\/recognition-for-kosovo\">https:\/\/www.cagle.com\/paresh-nath\/2010\/07\/recognition-for-kosovo<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Kosovo: lobbying, incentives, and dirty deeds?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2019, Kosovo lost two Pacific allies\u2014Palau and Nauru\u2014and three African allies\u2014Ghana, Togo and The Central African Republic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As with Taiwan and China, the revoking of recognition of Kosovo comes with the implicit (and often explicit) recognition of its parent state. Serbia has been actively <a href=\"https:\/\/balkaninsight.com\/2019\/09\/04\/intensifying-battle-over-kosovos-recognition-is-futile\/\">involved<\/a> in lobbying and incentivizing states against recognizing Kosovo. Its most recent successes, in the Pacific and Africa, mark a sustained effort from Belgrade to diminish Kosovo\u2019s ability to interact in the international sphere, with Ivica Dacic, the Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs, claiming <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/section\/enlargement\/news\/15-countries-and-counting-revoke-recognition-of-kosovo-serbia-says\/\">\u201cour goal is for that number of recognitions to drop below half of the total number of UN member states\u2026 (to ensure that) Kosovo leadership will not be able to behave as they wish.\u201d<\/a> While Serbia is honest in their campaign to diminish the number of Kosovo\u2019s recognitions, they are, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/section\/enlargement\/news\/15-countries-and-counting-revoke-recognition-of-kosovo-serbia-says\/\">according to some<\/a>, dishonest in their tactics.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kosovo and Serbia have <a href=\"https:\/\/balkaninsight.com\/2019\/09\/04\/intensifying-battle-over-kosovos-recognition-is-futile\/\">both<\/a> endeavored to lobby their cases\u2014recognition or not\u2014on the international stage. Both nations, in their endeavors, have been accused of using bribery and corruption to influence foreign leaders. Kosovo (with the backing of the United States and Britain) and Serbia (with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-08-28\/balkan-rift-deepens-with-some-unexpected-help-from-togo\">alleged<\/a> support of Russia) have made recognition a central focus of their geopolitical struggles with each other. While Kosovo\u2019s loss of 5 allies certainly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/section\/enlargement\/news\/15-countries-and-counting-revoke-recognition-of-kosovo-serbia-says\/\">affects<\/a> the state, the ramifications can be seen within a larger narrative of Kosovo and Serbia\u2019s ongoing chess game of recognitions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The Fight Continues<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2019 saw the loss of recognitions for both Kosovo and Taiwan. While the withdrawal of recognitions represents different political situations in each nation, Taiwan\u2019s and Kosovo\u2019s losses symbolize the nations\u2019 struggles against a larger political power with active interests to diminish their respective levels of recognitions, and ultimately their geopolitical power. China\u2019s interests in the Pacific mirror their attempts to isolate Taiwan. Concurrently, although recognition may be more of their central focus, Serbia\u2019s attempt to marginalize Kosovo informs their policy to isolate the nation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As 2020 starts, it will be interesting to view the next moves in the international recognition of de facto states. Taiwan, with Tsai\u2019s endorsed presidency, will grapple with China\u2019s interests in the Pacific\u2026 Will Tuvalu\u2019s suggested Pacific partnership succeed, or will Taiwan find itself more and more alone? Will Serbia and Kosovo\u2019s recognition chess-match produce impactful results, or will their international partners tire of the nations\u2019 persistent conflict? Perhaps, only time will tell.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em><span lang=\"EN-US\">Author: Annie Rose Healion<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 \u2018No take backs,\u2019 is perhaps a staple of playground rules, but an improbability in international law. As politics change, powers wax and wane, and sketches of borders are erased and redrawn, the recognition of de facto states &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":66,"featured_media":1395,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-89","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dfsrublogposts"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/66"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1887,"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89\/revisions\/1887"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sisu.ut.ee\/defactostates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}