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Early last year, Exxon Mobile announced a discovery of gas fields near Cyprus. The sudden, albeit only projected, wealth has put people thinking about the future of the island. Among other topics \u2013 the political future of Cyprus. Would a possible hydrocarbon wealth unite the divided island? Or will money make both sides dig even deeper trenches as business partners, or families, of all eras and locations have experienced?<\/p>\n
The Cyprus problem has been on the radar since 1960s\u2013 if we talk about the conflict after Cyprus\u2019 independence from British rule. The first crisis erupted in 1963, a mere three years after independence. The other major dates in the conflict timeline are the 1974 Turkish invasion, 1983 the declaration of independence of Northern Cyprus, and the 2004 rejection of the Annan Plan. There have been times of very icy relations as well as thaws and convergence. If the gas find turns out to be commercially successful, then it could add another twist to events.<\/p>\n
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Exxon Mobile\u2019s natural gas discovery off Cyprus. Source of the image: Daily Sabah<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n In fact, there already have been political implications. The European Union has handed travel bans to Turkish nationals<\/span><\/a> who have been involved in explorations. As well as being a Cypriot issue, Turkey itself has claims concerning economic zones in the Mediterranean. But, before we discuss the options for each party regarding the unifications, let\u2019s take a look at European energy consumption and imports.<\/p>\n Natural gas is the second largest source <\/span><\/a>of energy for Europe after oil and petroleum products<\/span>. About 582 million TOE (tons of oil equivalent) of oil and around 400 million TOE of natural gas were consumed in the EU in 2017. Production of natural gas in Europe is decreasing and its imports are increasing. In fact, only renewable energy production has increased in the Union, becoming the energy source with largest production share. This means that, most of its hydrocarbons are imported.<\/p>\n Russia is the main source of European energy\u2013 around 30% of oil and 40%<\/span><\/a> of natural gas comes from our eastern neighbour. Latest Exxon find is estimated between 5 trillion to 8 trillion cubic feet<\/span><\/a>. One million tons of oil equivalent of energy is around 39 billion cubic feet of natural gas. This is, therefore, around half of European yearly consumption if we take the upper ceiling into account\u2026 probably not enough to turn Cyprus into new Kuwait<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>but enough to create anxiety and build up hopes. And it is definitely enough to build up political tensions. So, what could be the implications to different actors in the region?<\/p>\n Turkey has joined the experimental drilling, trying to find gas of its own\u2026, which is understandable, it imports gas, and possible finds can offer an alternative. Turkey\u2019s main problem is that there is no mutually accepted boundary between the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) of itself and the Republic of Cyprus. This has led to liberal interpretations of international law<\/span><\/a> about who has rights to drill where. Also, Turkey recognises licences issued by Northern Cyprus\u2026 and as we know, nobody else does. This inevitably leads to overlapping claims and licensing. The logical results are growing tensions. We have to put it into larger context of cooling relations between Turkey and the EU where the conditionality has stopped working. Turkey seems to be distancing itself from Western institutions\u2026 or, at least following different policies to the EU and NATO.<\/p>\n